Clinicians ponder: Who will get Covid-19? How severe will the symptoms become?

The NPC Healthbiz Weekly has launched. It's your weekly briefing on topics pertinent to healthcare marketers and executives, published in cooperation with Peak Pharma Solutions. From Chronicle Companies, organizers of the 14th National Pharmaceutical Congress, which begins Oct. 21. More info at pharmacongress.info.  

⇒ Issue #119 (In numerology, 119 represents compassion, tolerance, and humanitarianism.)
⇒ Confirmed Covid cases in Canada as of 10/07: 173,756*
⇒ Confirmed Covid fatalities in Canada as of 10/07: 9,582:*
⇒ Worldwide Covid cases as of 10/07: 35,849,421*

⇒ Worldwide Covid fatalities as of 10/07: 1,050,507* 

October 7, 2020 -- Good morning, CurveFlatteners. Resuming another week of high-level pondering, ruminating, and, most particularly, head-scratching, it’s Chronicle’s Mitch Shannon joining you once again this morning from the outskirts of town, where the streets have no names.

Before we even hit the shower today we learned, via the Secretary-General of the World Health Organization, that a Covid vaccine may be available to some before the end of calendar year 2020 (a.k.a, Worst Year Ever.) We'll see. This virus has already tricked us, at least a million times.

One of the toughest puzzles Covid-19 researchers are attempting to fathom is why the virus infects some patients and not others who present a similar health profile. Moreover, science has not yet come to terms with why the infection causes different symptom manifestations and severities in some and not others.

 

An international collaborative project is attempting to understand how the human body's many types of immune cells respond to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Researchers from the private La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California and the U.K.’s public Universities of Liverpool and Southampton have deduced that early in the illness, patients hospitalized with severe cases of Covid-19 develop a novel T cell subset that can potentially kill B cells and reduce antibody production. Their study was published yesterday (Oct. 6, 2020) in the journal Cell and is accessible here.

 

Says study co-lead Christian H. Ottensmeier, M.D., Ph.D. of the University of Liverpool: "With this study, we levied our long-standing collaboration for a new human health puzzle. Going forward, we can extend this understanding of what's going on in the blood in response to new viruses to understanding what goes on in the tissue when our immune system deals with cancer."

Meanwhile, as Dr. Ottensmeier and colleagues assess “how,” a team at Johns Hopkins University is trying to predict “who.” In an article just published in Annals of Internal Medicine, Brian Garibaldi, M.D. and colleagues reveal a so-called prediction model that uses a set of Covid-associated risk factors to forecast how likely a hospitalized patient's disease is to worsen. The model also predicts when a decline may occur. The model, called the "COVID Inpatient Risk Calculator (CIRC)," is available online here.

 

The NPC Podcast is back for another season. The organizers of the National Pharmaceutical Congress are proud to release our new weekly podcast series, hosted by Peter Brenders. Peter's guest this week is Nicole Serena of Waldron Group. Listen here now, or download the episode and play it at your convenience. The NPC Podcast is presented in cooperation with Impres Pharma

COVID CHRONICLE 10/07/2020 (CROSS-CANADA EDITION)

• Forgive the pun, but when it comes to Covid, the Canadian territory of Nunavut is simply having, um, none of it.  Nunavut, created in 1999, has emerged as the only North American jurisdiction that remains free of coronavirus. The territorial government has been criticized for some of the measures it has imposed to prevent the disease from entering the region. One unpopular regulation requires residents re-entering the territory from other territories or provinces to remain in quarantine for two weeks. Dr. Michael Patterson, chief health officer, defends the policy to Maclean’s magazine: “We needed to be more rigorous and careful to limit the chance of an outbreak until we improve other circumstances, like testing turnaround time.”

• Ontario Premier Doug Ford appears to be facing one of those uncertain Thanksgivings next Monday (or, as Chronicle's U.S.A. correspondent Cory "Knuckles" Perla insists on calling it, "Canadian Thanksgiving.") In a scene that might have been excised from holiday film classics such as "Avalon" or "Planes, Trains and Automobiles," Premier Ford said the gathering at his household would be limited to 10 guests, in keeping with the province's new recommendations. However, he seemed to forget that those were the old new regulations. Dr. Barbara Yaffe, his Associate Medical Officer of Health, just suggested Ontarians keep their holiday dinners to immediate family only, as a response to the recent spike in Covid cases. That earned a Doug-shrug. Perhaps he hit on the thought that the advisory means extra helpings of turkey for poppa.
•  The day after Thankgiving is a traditional signal for Canadians to begin lining up to receive flu vaccines, but this is far from a normal October. Those HCPs and jurisdictions that traditionally administer a flu jab are wondering how they are going to cope with the increased demand, expected to be spurred by Covid. Pharmacists for once want to avoid drawing crowds to their waiting areas, and Dr. Aly Abdulla, an Ottawa GP, tells CTV News that Covid puts the kibosh on the usual response to a need for mass-vaccinations, such as renting out facilities such as civic centers or the local legion hall. In Virgil, Ont., pharmacist Sean Simpson says he's devised a method to vaccinate patients in their automobiles. Throw in a car wash, Mr. Simpson, and you might be on to something.
• Edmontonians were reeling from the announcement that Connor McDavid, star of the NHL Oilers, tested positive for Covid. The team announced McDavid was experiencing mild symptoms and is in quarantine.

WHAT CHRONICLE IS WORKING ON TODAY...

Having wrapped up the sixth annual Skin Spectrum Summit late last night, attention has turned to our B2B conference, the 14th annual National Pharmaceutical Congress, which is digital this year and begins two weeks from today. Check out the agenda at http://pharmacongress.info. If you are a transitioning pharma or life sci executive who needs a hand with the registration fee this year, there are bursaries available to cover your full cost of attending. The grants are covered by our friends at Gibson Group, and Chronicle, who want to pay things forward. Contact me if you wish to request a bursary.

WHAT I'M WATCHING TONIGHT...

I don't know why I suddenly happen to have access to Apple TV. Might have something to do with that severely overpriced iPad I picked up earlier this summer. I will not complain, although most of the tech giant's entertainment offerings are dull, disposable crap. One that is not is Ted Lasso, a high-concept comedy that depicts an American college football coach of no particular standing or aptitude who is recruited as a soccer manager, with mischievous intent, by the scheming owner of a once-proud club in the U.K. Premier League. If the premise seems lame, the execution exceeds expectations. This is as good a collision of Brit and Yank low-cultures as you might hope for, with fine acting from an engaging ensemble (including Nick Mohammed as a put-upon dogsbody), witty scripts, and surprisingly plausible situations. Bonus: the music is selected and often performed by the redoubtable Marcus Mumford. Recommended binge viewing for those who paid the stiff tariff for an Apple setup.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW

The Daily CurveFlattener returns on Thursday with a report from Chronicle's John "Estimable" Evans. Until then, stay in touch and stay safe.