How effective does a COVID-19 vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic?

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⇒ Issue #101 (In numerology, 101 resonates with romance, teamwork, and relationships)
⇒ Confirmed Covid cases in Canada as of 08/26: 127,903*
⇒ Confirmed Covid fatalities in Canada as of 08/26: 9,136*
⇒ Worldwide Covid cases as of 08/26: 23,918,447*
⇒ Worldwide Covid fatalities as of 08/26: 819,945*

August 26, 2020 — Good morning. It's Chronicle assistant editor Dhiren Mahiban here with the midweek edition of the Daily CurveFlattener.

While the race is on to develop an effective vaccine to fight the Covid-19 virus, you might wonder: How effective does the vaccine candidate need to be to stop the global pandemic?

According to research published online ahead of print in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine (July 15, 2020), a computer simulation model found that if 75 per cent of the population gets vaccinated, the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70 per cent to prevent an epidemic and at least 80 per cent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic.

The research led by the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy in New York also found that if only 60 per cent of the population gets vaccinated, around 80 per cent efficacy would be needed to prevent an epidemic and 100 per cent to extinguish an ongoing epidemic. 

"Some people are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out, does not mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic," said Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, the study's lead investigator, in a press release. Dr. Lee is part of the computational and operations research department at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy. 

"It is important to remember that a vaccine is like many other products — what matters is not just that a product is available, but also how effective it is," Dr. Lee added. 

The authors of the study say the results of the research can provide targets for vaccine developers and help shape expectations for policymakers.  

COVID CHRONICLE 08/26/2020

• A Tulane University study found patients hospitalized with Covid-19, who had a combination of high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes were over three times more likely to die from the disease. Published in the journal Diabetes Care (Aug 2020), the study found, after accounting for age, sex, race, hospital location, and other conditions, patients with metabolic syndrome were 3.4 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those who did not have the condition. 
• A collaborative study found while social distancing is an effective preventative measure in the fight against Covid-19, there are significant variations being observed in how and why individuals follow the restrictions in South Korea, North America and Kuwait. The study published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (Aug 11, 2020) discovered government response efforts to Covid-19 heavily influenced self-adherence to social distancing measures. Further, governments who instilled fear instead of providing important, knowledgeable information, are less likely to be trusted, according to the study's findings.  
• According to a new study from the UC San Diego School of Medicine, thousands of fake social media posts tied to Covid-19 and financial scams are found on two popular platforms. Published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research Public Health and Surveillance (Aug 25, 2020), the study found thousands of social media posts on Twitter and Instagram tied to financial scams and possible counterfeit goods specific to Covid-19 products and unapproved treatments. 

STORIES CHRONICLE IS WORKING ON TODAY

Researchers in India have developed an outline of best practices and recommendations for dermatologists as they restructure their practice of procedural dermatology and cutaneous aesthetic surgeries during Covid-19. You can read more in my post over at Derm.City. 

RIGHT NOW I'M LISTENING TO... 

The Aug. 18, 2020 episode of the podcast Two Writers Slinging Yang. Host Jeff Pearlman interviews The Washington Post baseball writer Dave Sheinin about covering the game during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

LATER WE'RE READING...

Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. After being injured multiple times as a runner himself, McDougall, an award-winning journalist, studies the Tarahumara Native Mexican tribe's ability to run ultra distances without getting the routine injuries of most runners. 

TONIGHT WE'RE EATING... 

Leftovers of this easy gnocchi and roasted vegetables recipe is on the menu for dinner tonight.  

AND HOW ARE YOU DOING?

Please make use of the comments section at the Daily CurveFlattener, to let us know what you're up to today. Or feel free to check in via LinkedIn, email, or your choice of connector. By all means, pass this newsletter along to your colleagues. That's it. Stay in touch, stay safe. My colleague Kylie Rebernik will be by tomorrow with your Thursday edition of the Daily CurveFlattener. 

Be sure to check out the third edition of Chronicle's new e-newsletter, "Skin Spectrum Weekly." It's a weekly report out every Monday featuring clinical news and expert medical commentary on scientific and cultural subjects related to Skin of Color and Ethnodermatology. Have a look at http://skinspectrum.online and sign up for your free subscription.