Will warmer weather slow the spread of Covid-19? New research suggests it won't

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June 4, 2020—Good morning from the west end of Toronto; it's Chronicle assistant editor Dhiren Mahiban with your Thursday edition of the Daily CurveFlattener. 

Despite the belief held by a particular world leader that Covid-19 will miraculously go away with warmer temperatures, new research conducted at Mount Auburn Hospital in Cambridge, Mass. suggests that while warmer temperatures will slow Covid-19 transmission, the reduction will not be significant.

Published in the journal Clinical Infectious Disease (May 30, 2020), researchers studied changes in temperature between January and April 2020 to investigate its impact on the spread of Covid-19.

Results showed the lowest rate of new cases was observed on days where the temperature was above 50 degrees F five days earlier. The highest increase in infection rates was detected on days when the maximum temperature was below 30 degrees F. 

"Based on our analysis, the modest association suggests that it is unlikely that disease transmission will slow dramatically in the summer months from the increase in temperature alone," said Dr. Shiv T. Sehra, the study's first author, in a press release.   


Experts told CTV News that pandemics don't behave the same way as seasonal outbreaks and that summer weather won't stop Covid-19 or signal an end to physical distancing. 

"It looks, so far, that warmer weather might do a little bit. But it won't have a huge impact as far as we can tell, and we certainly can't rely on that to reduce the cases," said Chris Bauch, a mathematics professor at the University of Waterloo. Bauch has done extensive research into the spread of SARS and the 2009 pandemic influenza. 

"The biggest impact is continuing our physical distancing efforts." 

COVID CHRONICLE 05/26/2020

• Keeping at least one metre from other people as well as wearing face coverings and eye protection, in and outside of healthcare settings, could be the best way to reduce the chance of viral infection or transmission of Covid-19, according to a study published in Lancet (June 1, 2020). Researchers reviewed all available evidence from the 172 observational studies looking at how physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection affect the spread of Covid-19, SARS, and MERS in both community and healthcare settings across 16 countries.
• The first convalescent plasma transfusion trial results from Houston Methodist in Houston, Texas have been published in The American Journal of Pathology (May 21, 2020). Results showed that of the study's 25 patients, 19 have improved and 11 have been discharged. With no adverse side effects caused by the therapy, the study concluded that convalescent plasma is a safe treatment option for patients with severe Covid-19.
• Analysis of Covid-19 outbreaks in 58 cities has found that places that took longer to begin implementing social distancing measures spent more time with the virus rapidly spreading than cities that acted quickly. Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found that every day a city delayed in implementing social distancing measures after the first appearance of a case added 2.4 days to the length of the outbreak.
• In January the World Health Organization (WHO) was publicly praising the Chinese government for its handling of the Covid-19 virus; however, according to a story by The Associated Press (June 2, 2020), behind the scenes, there was considerable frustration among WHO officials over not getting proper information from China to fight the spread of the virus. 

STORIES CHRONICLE IS WORKING ON TODAY

Over at Derm.City we have a post on a study conducted at the University of Texas Southwestern where researchers have developed a new cooling insole that could reduce the foot temperature of patients with diabetic neuropathy, diminishing one of the risk factors for diabetic foot ulcers.  

RIGHT NOW WE ARE LISTENING TO... 

The Two Writers Slinging Yang podcast. Host Jeff Pearlman conducts a no-holds-barred conversation with a writer on his or her craft. This week's episode features writer and Boston College history professor Heather Cox Richardson who discusses whether the U.S. survives the Trump Nightmare.

LATER WE'RE READING...

This week we're finishing up 'Generation Friends' by Saul Austerlitz. The book gives readers a behind-the-scenes look at the NBC sitcom. Austerlitz uses interviews with the series creators, producers, writers, and cast members to tell the story of the creation of Friends and its decade long run. 

TONIGHT WE'RE EATING... 

We're doing take out for dinner tonight. Tacos from Raza on Roncy.   

AND HOW ARE YOU DOING?

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That's it. Stay in touch, stay safe. My colleague Jeremy Visser will be in this space tomorrow to get you ready for the weekend.