Modelling study shows Covid-19's 2nd wave may be preventable

⇒ Issue #61
⇒ Confirmed Covid cases in Canada as of 06/23: 103,767*
⇒ Confirmed Covid fatalities in Canada as of 06/23: 8,512*
⇒ Worldwide Covid cases as of 06/23: 9,273,773*
⇒ Worldwide Covid fatalities as of 06/23: 477,807*

June 24, 2020—Good morning from the hardscrabble west end of Toronto, where it's frequently said, "West Toronto makes; the world takes." It's Chronicle assistant editor Dhiren Mahiban here with your midweek edition of the Daily CurveFlattener. Hopefully, everyone is still maintaining social distance despite the varying degrees of re-opening across the country.

Researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) found individual behaviours can have a large impact on preventing a second wave of Covid-19 infections. 

Maintaining social distance and other interventions such as the use of face masks and proper hand hygiene could prevent future lockdowns according to a modelling study conducted by ISGlobal.

Published online ahead of print in the journal Nature Human Behaviour (June 22, 2020), the findings show that for countries that have not yet reached their peak number of active cases, lockdowns must remain in place for at least 60 days and deconfinement must be gradual to reduce the risk of a second wave.

The study presents projections based on a model that divides the population into seven groups: susceptible, quarantined, exposed, infection not detected, reported infection and confined, recoveries, and death. 

"This model can be particularly useful for countries where the peak of cases has not yet been reached, such as those in the Southern hemisphere. It would allow to evaluate control policies and minimize the number of cases and fatalities caused by the virus," said study co-author and ISGlobal researcher, Leonardo Lopez, in a press release.

Researchers aimed to quantitatively evaluate the use of face masks, hand hygiene, and 'shelter in place' mandates as containment strategies. Results show the length of the first confinement will affect the timing and magnitude of subsequent waves. Additionally, the gradual deconfinement strategies always result in a lower number of infections and deaths, when compared to a fast deconfinement process.

"If we manage to reduce [the] transmission rate by 30 per cent through the use of face masks, hand hygiene, and social distancing, we can considerably reduce the magnitude of the next wave. Reducing transmission rate by 50% could avoid it completely," said Xavier Rodo, head of ISGlobal's Climate and Health program.  

COVID CHRONICLE 06/24/2020

• About 108 million U.S. workers are in jobs that cannot be done from home during the pandemic, putting these workers at an increased risk of exposure to Covid-19. This group of workers is also at a higher risk for other job disruptions such as layoffs, furloughs, or a reduction in hours, according to a University of Washington study. These job disruptions can cause stress, anxiety and other mental health outcomes that could persist even as the U.S. reopens its economic and social life, a study published in the American Journal of Public Health (June 18, 2020) shows. 
• A team of researchers at the Chongqing Medical University, a branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention found that the antibodies developed by the body against Covid-19 fade quickly. The finding raises concerns over whether being infected provides lasting immunity against the viral infection. The study published in the journal Nature Medicine (June 18, 2020) investigated 37 symptomatic and 37 asymptomatic patients who were infected with the coronavirus. Researchers found more than 90% of the participants in both groups showed a rapid decline in the levels of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulin antibodies just two to three months after the onset of infection.
• A study conducted by the American Association for the Advancement of Science discovered a surge in flu-like infections in the U.S. in March 2020 which suggests that the likely number of Covid-19 cases was far larger than the official estimates. An investigation of existing surveillance networks for influenza-like infections was published online ahead of print in Science Translational Medicine (June 22, 2020). The findings support a scenario where more than 8.7 million new Covid-19 infections appeared in the U.S. in March, and estimate that more than 80% of these cases remained unidentified as the outbreak rapidly spread. 

STORIES CHRONICLE IS WORKING ON TODAY

Over at www.Derm.City, we have a post on the lessons learned from teledermatology consultations. The study conducted by researchers at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, Mass. suggests teledermatology visits are best suited for acne and non-specific dermatitis. 

RIGHT NOW WE ARE LISTENING TO... 

Snippets of The Killers sixth studio album Imploding the Mirage, which has been released on Apple Music. 

LATER WE'RE READING...

This week we're working our way through The Cost of these Dreams, an anthology of stories from sports writer Wright Thompson. 

TONIGHT WE'RE EATING... 

Leftovers of this one-pan chicken & asparagus bake recipe we cooked earlier in the week. 

AND HOW ARE YOU DOING?

Please make use of the comments section at the Daily CurveFlattener, to let us know what you're up to today. Or feel free to check in via LinkedIn, email, or your choice of connector. By all means, pass this newsletter along to your colleagues.

That's it. Stay in touch, stay safe. My colleague Jeremy Visser will be by tomorrow with your Thursday edition of the Daily CurveFlattener.